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Georgia Must Put The Brakes On Commuter Rail

Commentary

Georgia Must Put the Brakes on Commuter Rail

By Benita M. Dodd

There are three ways to spend a lot of money, goes the saying:  high living, gambling and maintaining a railroad. The first is the most fun; the second is the most exciting; the third is the most sure.

The current headstrong rush to romance rail in Georgia is evidence that the expression isn’t familiar to transit proponents, transportation leaders and community leaders who continue to insist that commuter rail between Lovejoy and Atlanta, and eventually on to Macon, is a ticket to cost-effective congestion relief.

Gung-ho mayors have pledged that their constituents will cover any shortfall in the proposed service’s operating and maintenance costs; the Georgia Department of Transportation has estimated a $4 million to $5 million annual operating shortfall. An enthusiastic House Transportation Committee member recently told the DOT board’s intermodal committee, “The only problem we have is we don’t think you’re moving fast enough.” This month, a DOT board resolution ordered the department to begin negotiations with the rail corridor owner, Norfolk Southern, which also is willing to discuss operating the service.

State leaders need to put the brakes on this project and insist that transportation officials take the necessary time to re-evaluate the questionable expectations of the proposed service, including cost estimates; ridership assumptions; time efficiency and congestion relief.

Such questions are not unique to this commuter rail proposal: Costs are underestimated in nine out of 10 transportation infrastructure projects, according to a 2002 study reported in the Journal of the American Planning Association. For rail projects, actual costs are on average 45 percent higher than estimated costs.

“The key policy implication for this consequential and highly expensive field of public policy is that those legislators, administrators, bankers, media representatives and members of the public who value honest numbers should not trust the cost estimates presented by infrastructure promoters and forecasters,” the authors warn.

In the case of the Lovejoy-Atlanta line, the assumption is that by the anticipated startup in September 2006, rail proponents will have persuaded motorists within a five-mile radius of the Lovejoy, Jonesboro, Morrow, Forest Park, East Point and Atlanta stations to give up driving and ride instead in used coaches powered by used locomotives on an upgraded freight line shared with Norfolk Southern. The one-way fare for the 26-mile, 46-minute trip from Lovejoy to Atlanta will be $5.60 – or a round-trip cost of $9 per day with a monthly pass ­ –  a high price for metro Atlanta commuters.

It’s an attractive proposition, according to the DOT’s Georgia Rail Passenger Program (GRPP), because by 2005 the auto trip between Lovejoy and Atlanta is expected to take 58 minutes in peak-hour travel time, while the train ride would take 46 minutes. And by 2030, GRPP says, the auto trip will take 81 minutes. Nothing is said about travel time to and from stations.

Timeliness should be a concern to prospective commuter rail passengers, who will be competing with Norfolk Southern’s profitable industrial freight customers for track time. Norfolk Southern states in its 2003 annual report: “Overall on-time train performance improved to 84.3 percent in 2003.” In other words, about 16 percent of its freight trains were late. Chicago’s Metra runs 700 passenger trains and reported 96 percent on-time performance in 2002. That year, Amtrak blamed one-third of delays on freight trains, even though Amtrak passenger trains have priority over freight trains.

Cost considerations are another concern: Negotiations with Norfolk Southern have only just been authorized and estimated costs are sure to change, yet already GRPP excludes any rent payments to Norfolk Southern, “in consideration of investment in track structure.” GRPP has also inexplicably reduced its 2009 daily ridership projections by 15 percent, to 3,080 passengers daily. Mayors who graciously offered to cover the estimated shortfall should be aware that the loss of those projected passengers may just have raised the ante another half-million dollars a year.

Not only is the ridership projection changing, the assumption that the farebox will cover 45 percent of operating costs by 2011 is far higher than all new start commuter lines except Virginia’s. GRPP also estimates that the 770,000 annual rail trips will result in 21 million fewer vehicle miles driven by 2009, which suggests that every rail passenger would otherwise have been driving a single-occupancy vehicle. But the Regional On-Board Transit Survey by the Atlanta Regional Commission found that 65 percent of metro area transit users don’t even have a vehicle available for use; in Gwinnett and Clayton counties, that figure is 51 percent. Traditionally, new train riders are former bus riders, negating much gain in transit users.

Part of the problem, especially in Atlanta, was pointed out by Denise Starling, executive director of BUC, the 3-month-old free Buckhead shuttle: “Everybody wants a stop, and everybody wants an express route,” Starling told the DOT intermodal committee this month.

Adding a sense of urgency to the commuter rail project is the warning that unless Georgia picks up the pace, it will lose $87 million in federal funds earmarked for the 26-mile line, for which GRPP says start-up costs are $106 million. Of course, there is no real urgency. The federal government is unlikely to take back these obligated funds; Congress would face a political upheaval if earmarked money is withdrawn from states without giving them the opportunity to negotiate and justify retaining the funds.

Georgia’s commuters deserve to know that their tax dollars – federal, state or local – are being used wisely, cost-effectively and efficiently. Macon’s express bus service died from lack of support; rail service is hardly the solution. The Georgia Regional Transportation Authority is planning express bus service from Lovejoy; it’s a prime opportunity to gauge potential rail ridership for the line. Critics argue that bus service is not proxy for rail ridership because buses are subject to the same traffic jams as cars. An attractive option is to place buses in dedicated HOV or HOT lanes.

Commuter rail may well be in a growing Georgia’s future, but first, there’s another expression that state leaders need to share with commuter rail proponents:

Y'all come back now. With some real numbers.

Benita M. Dodd is vice president of the Georgia Public Policy Foundation, an independent think tank that proposes practical, market-oriented approaches to public policy to improve the lives of Georgians. Nothing written here is to be construed as necessarily reflecting the views of the Georgia Public Policy Foundation or as an attempt to aid or hinder the passage of any bill before the U.S. Congress or the Georgia Legislature.

© Georgia Public Policy Foundation (March 26, 2004). Permission to reprint in whole or in part is hereby granted, provided the author and her affiliations are cited.